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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.